The Synopsis - NRL Round 20

I hope readers appreciated the inclusion of ratings last week and this week I have included a few details for each team to give readers a sense of the pre match strengths and weaknesses that the ratings indicate. Remember each rating is in brackets next to the club name and the full list, in descending order, can be seen at the end of the write up.

Broncos (48) v Titans (155)
The Broncos rated 1st in three areas: fewest missed tackles, fewest penalties conceded and most points scored. They also rank 2nd in line breaks. The Titans rank 16th in four areas; missed tackles, penalties conceded, points conceded by the defence and metres gained running the Ball.

The first half saw the visitors demonstrate that despite their lowly status they were at Suncorp to fight for the two points. At the 12th minute they went within a whisker of scoring with only Brisbane's extraordinary commitment to defence stopping a try, one metre out. To compound the trauma, a bad pass from the dummy half to playmaker Kane Elgey saw him wrapped up by Sam Thaiday (instead of getting the ball away) and possession changed hands. Two tackles later Brisbane received a penalty and the play moved back into Gold Coast territory. Almost in the blink of an eye, attacking from five metres out, a magical pass from Halfback Ben Hunt to Corey Parker saw the veteran score beneath the posts. Thus all the effort and enthusiasm from the Gold Coast was erased and in the next 25 minutes, despite their best efforts, two more tries were scored.

First Darius Boyd (22nd minute) crashed through out wide and then Ben Hunt (27th minute) danced through the defence with a dummy and then a side step to beat the Knights fullback. A match that had been nil all at the 14th minute had become Brisbane 16-0 at the 28th. A penalty right on half time saw the home team go to the sheds leading by 18.

Gold Coast supporters who hoped their team might fight back were disappointed when Brisbane interchange forward Jarrod Wallace scored six minutes into the second half, and with the conversion the score became 24-0. Another of Brisbane's interchange player Kodi Nikorima scored at the 63rd minute and with Corey Parker's conversion 30-0 flashed up on the scoreboard. Alex Glenn scored his 3rd try in two weeks, with nine minutes left on the clock, to give Brisbane a total of 76-16 in two home matches.

Amazingly the Titans had more possession than the Broncos (53%-47%) but Wayne Bennett has his team's defence well drilled, missing just 13 tackles. The visitors (on the other hand) have missed 30 tackles or more 11 times so far in 2015 and four of those they missed more than 40 tackles. Final score Brisbane 34 - Gold Coast 0.

Tigers (133) v Roosters (69)
The Roosters are (like the Broncos) rated 1st across three areas: most tackle breaks, best points differential and best defence. The Tigers have a better kicking game (in meters gained) and make fewer errors, and both of these could be important in a close match.

The first half was a tight contest with only two tries, both scored by individual effort - Bill Tupou (21st minute) for the Roosters and James Tedesco (26th minute) for the Tigers. The Roosters had more ball (55% - 45%) but couldn't get on top of the Tigers. Both teams made 150 tackles, so neither would have an advantage in terms of fatigue in the back end of the match.

The 2nd half was a continuation of the battle for supremacy in the middle, with the Tigers playmakers taking more and more chances with the ball as they sought to break down the Roosters defence. Despite the Tigers efforts, first Brendan Elliot (45th) and then Sam Moa (54th) scored for the Roosters, taking the score from 4-8 to 4-20 with just 25 minutes left. Tiger's winger, Pat Richards scored in the corner and although he missed the conversion, there was now only two converted tries between the teams and 20 minutes left on the clock.

The Tigers, continuing to attack, ran the ball on the last tackle and Pat Richards put a kick through, but a penalty was awarded to the Roosters, as some of his support players were off-side. During the ensuing set, Boyd Cordner burst the Tigers defence at the 30 metre line and James Maloney backed him up to take the pass, sliding in under the crossbar to scored. With his conversion Sydney led 26-8 and any hope Wests, had had, was gone. To the commentators (and fans) surprise Maloney then popped a field goal (taking the lead out to three converted tries, plus one) and when Brendan Elliot crossed for a another try in the 79th minute the final score became 33-8, a true indication of the difference between the teams.

New Zealand Warriors (90) vs Manly Sea Eagles (136)
The Warriors are rated 1st in line breaks, 3rd in tackle breaks and 4th in tries scored, but they make the most errors and are last in kick metres gained. Alternately the Sea Eagles are 2nd in kick meters gained and make far fewer errors.

Manly, according to Coach Toovey, are starting to look to mathematics (which, as he said, can be seen as a sign of desperation) but despite being 6 points outside the top 8 they have not given up on finals football, just yet.

The first half was an arm wrestle and neither team was able to assert any dominance. Ten minutes into the match, Sea Eagle prop Jake Trbojevic took a pass from team-mate Ligi Sao (who had four defenders clinging to him) and crossed untouched. Jamie Lyons converted the try and the visitors led 6-0. At the 25th minute mark, Warriors half Shaun Johnson took a pass from Sam Tomkins and raced 10 metres to score with three defenders desperately trying to stop him. Although the try was converted that wasn't the real news to come from that play. Johnson had injured his ankle (possibly very badly) and was immediately taken from the field and to the local hospital for x-rays, scans etc. The score was 6-6 but the Warriors most potent weapon, goal kicker and leader was gone for the match - maybe for the season!! The score remained unchanged at half time but the players were, as the commentators said, ‘dropping like flies'. Manly's Steve Matai, Tom Burgess and Ligi Sao were off with game ending injuries and Johnson's loss seemed to leave the home team rudderless.

The 2nd half was only five minutes old when Jorge Taufua scored on his wing. Although unconverted it was a perfect start for the Sea Eagles and when the prince of Brookvale (Brett Stewart) pounced on a Daly Cherry-Evans grubber kick Manly had scored 10 points in 8 minutes. At the 53rd minute Jorge Taufua dived over defenders to touchdown again and Jamie Lyon converted from the sideline giving the visitors a 16 point lead. The shattered Warriors had their heads down and despite having 27 minutes still to play, they looked defeated. Brett Stewart took a pass ten metres out, on the left side attack and kicked the ball through the defensive line, regathered and scored his second try for the match. It was now 26-6 and the home team faced the prospect of two losses and 60 points conceded, in just 7 days. Warriors benchman Albert Vete crossed for a rare try and with seven minutes left the score was 26-12. The slim hope of a final minutes flourish by the Warriors was erased when Sea Eagles hooker Matt Ballin scored and with the conversion the visitors had won 32-12. As a result, Manly's mathematical chance of making the top 8 is still alive but I'm prepared to write again, it's very, very, unlikely.

Storm (78) vs Dragons (96)
The Storm have excellent ratings in four areas: they make the fewest errors, they are 2nd in least number of missed tackles and 2nd in defence and rate 3rd best in for / against differential. The Dragons, despite their last six weeks are still rating ok in a few areas; they are 1st in metres gained from kicks, 3rd in defence and 3rd in least number of penalties conceded.

Over 14,000 mainly Storm fans greeted the teams at McLean Park in Napier (NZ) in a home game taken on the road by Melbourne. It was a fantastic PR job by both clubs and clearly an effort welcomed by the locals. Melbourne forward Tohu Harris is a Hawkes Bay local and he was central to the goodwill program players from both clubs were part of prior to the match. The Storm has six Kiwi players and the Dragons two, giving local fans reasons to cheer for either team in the first ever NRL match in Napier.

The first half was pockmarked with errors, forward passes and lost opportunities, mainly effecting the Dragons who seemed to be nervous as they tried to stop a run of losses that had seen them tumble out of the top 8.

The Storm's 19 Year old debutante, Nelson Asofa-Solomon scored his first try and Melbourne's first at the 28th minute and when Storm winger Marika Koroibete crossed two minutes from half time, his team went to the break leading 12-nil. The Dragons were not out of the match but little was going right for them and Coach McGregor was concerned that his team were conceding possession and failing to grasp attacking chances. Their completion rate was less than 65% and by the end the match they had failed to complete 14 of their 38 sets. Although their early season successes were built around a solid defence, no team can keep a strong unit like Melbourne out, when they are given so many opportunities inside the red zone.

After second half tries to Kevin Proctor (55th minute) and Mahe Fonua (61st minute) the Storm lead 22 nil, with almost 20 minutes still to play. Regardless, the Dragons could not make the Storm pay for their errors and the last quarter saw just one try, to rangy centre Peter Mata'utia, just two minutes from the final whistle. The St George run of losses became seven when the hooter rang out on a final score of 22-4.

The match marked the return of Storm stalwart, Matt Duffie who had not played first grade for them since 2012, when a season ending shoulder injury ruined his chances to play in that year's grand final. He played just 4 matches in 2013 and surgeries kept him sidelined in 2014 as well. The 2010 Storm Rookie of the Year fought his way back to fitness and his determination was rewarded with NSW cup matches this year and finally a return to the top grade.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (95) vs Newcastle Knights (103)
The Rabbitohs rate 2nd in tackle breaks and 4th in most line breaks and fewest missed tackles, but rate 13th in Penalties conceded and 13th in metres run with the ball. Newcastle are 15th in points scored and 14th in points differential but rate highly in offloads 3rd and 4th in penalties conceded.

At ANZ tonight the Rabbitohs revealed the gulf between the top 8 and bottom 4. With 65% of the possession South Sydney were able to steam roll a Newcastle team that, although winning in Round 19 were still well below NRL standard. The men in Red and Green completed 93% of their sets and after leading 36-6 at half time, cruised to victory scoring 10 tries to 1.

The Knights have had a horrendous year for injury and before kick off today, lost key player Jarrod Mullen, necessitating a backline reorganisation. That said, they scored first to lead 6-0 after 5 minutes, but the awesome Rabbitohs then piled on 6 converted tries before the break.

When a team only has 35% of the possession and then concedes the ball with 9 errors they will struggle to win any game and even Captain Kurt Gidley conceded that fans had every right to be disappointed with their team.

South Sydney scored 4 more tries in 2nd half and ran out winners 52-6.

Penrith Panthers (127) vs Canberra Raiders (98)
Canberra's Raiders rate highly in points scored (2nd), fewest errors (2nd) as well as being (3rd) in metres gained from kicks, on the negative side, they are 14th in tackle breaks and defence. Penrith are 1st in offloads, but rate (9th) or worse in most other areas, especially scoring points (15th.)

Canberra and Penrith played a match in two halves on Sunday at Pepper Park. The first half was slick, exciting and filled with football that both teams would be proud of. Six tries were scored in the first 30 minutes (three each) and both teams fought hard for more, but finished 18-18 at half time. Fans of both teams, at home and at the ground were getting value for their money and the second half would decide which team would still have a chance for finals football, in six weeks.

After the break errors were committed by both teams as they tried to exert dominance (especially in the forwards). Almost with a sigh of relief, tries to Canberra's Paul Vaughan, (56th) and then Penrith's Robert Jennings, (64th), got the second half rolling.

However, with everyone on the edge of their seat, the Panthers made a coach killing error, dropping the ball in their first set after the equalising try. The Raiders, appreciated the leg up and worked their way into the attacking zone. On the last tackle a simple pass from the dummy half, saw winger Jordan Rapana score in the right hand corner to take his team to a 28-24 lead. Canberra then made the same simple error (in their post try set) but luckily for the Raiders, Penrith were not able to capitalise. Finally, in the 74th minute at the end of an attacking set, Penrith's kick was charged down and winger Edrick Lee carried the ball 65 metres to score under the posts and lock in a 34-24 win for the Raiders. Canberra proved for the 7th time that a good team can win, even with less 50/50 possession, today they had just 46% of the ball but scored 6 tries to 4.

Canterbury Bulldogs (73) vs Cronulla Sharks (97)
The Bulldogs rate strongly in a number of areas: they are (3rd) in line breaks and (4th) making fewest errors, but their kicking game (9th) and tackle breaks (11th) are weak. The Sharks are (2nd) in run metres and rate 5th or 6th in a number of other areas BUT, their line break rating is poor (13th) as is their rating for points scored (12th) and their kicking game needs to improve (10th).

Everyone who went to Belmore on Sunday afternoon in sunny Sydney expected a fight for the two points. They probably didn't expect a free flowing high scoring match but it seemed for a while that the Bulldogs tried to play one, and in making 21 errors along the way they failed.

The high error count played into the Sharks hands who ended up with 56% of possession and a close hard fought win. Some would argue that the Bulldogs let themselves be dragged down to the Sharks level but the opposite view is that Cronulla's defence dominated Canterbury and forced them to take chances that lead to mistakes. The Bulldogs also conceded 13 penalties, the highest by a home team this year.

There were only two tries in the first half with Cronulla leading 6-4 at the break. Captain Paul Gallen pushed his way over for a try at the 51st minute and Cronulla lead 12-4 with the conversion. At the 60th minute Cronulla's hero from the Auckland 9s Valentine Holmes scored, taking the lead out to 16-4, but with 20 minutes to play any outcome was still possible.

Five minutes later Bulldog big man Frank Pritchard crashed over for a try and with the conversion from Trent Hodgkinson the score was 16-10. Valentine Holmes kicked a strategic penalty at 74th minute and although the Bulldogs impressive young hooker Michael Lichaa crossed for a converted try in the 78th minute, the two points would travel back to the ‘Shire'. Final Score Sharks 18 - Bulldogs 16.

Nth Qld Cowboys (57) vs Parramatta Eels (131)
The Cowboys are rated 1st in Metres Run, 2nd in fewest penalties conceded and 3rd in fewest missed tackles. The also make few errors, 3rd, and 3rd in points scored. Interestingly they are 15th in offloads. The Eels are rated 8th or lower in all areas. They are 15th in tackle breaks, 14th in missed tackles and 14th for points scored.

Given the difference in ratings the first half saw a strong effort by the Eels. The Home team made 6 errors and despite 56% of ball could only lead by one converted try when they stopped for oranges, with the score at 10-4.

The second half panned out as expected by most fans and pundits with Jake Granville and Jonathan Thurston running amok. Six tries were scored from the 47th to 80th minute with Jake Granville scoring one and having a hand in three others. His dummy half work coupled with the work of fullback Lachlan Coote are the additions that have taken the Cowboys in 2015 from a top 8 team to a top 2 team. The final score 46-4, was a true indication of the difference between the teams.

Round 20 Pre Match Ratings

Broncos 48
Cowboys 57
Roosters 69
Bulldogs 73
Storm 78
Warriors 90
Souths 95
Dragons 96
Sharks 97
Raiders 98
Knights 103
Panthers 127
Eels 131
Tigers 133
Sea Eagles 136
Titans 155