The Prism - Round 17 2015

Hot topic

This season has been one of streaks. A string of wins or losses can mount upon each other and launch or deflate a team. This becomes habitual, leading either to a winning culture or a spiral downward.

The most notable have been:

• The Knights winning their first 4 then losing 10 of their next 11.
• The Cowboys 11 game winning streak after losing their first 3.
• The Dragons winning 8 from 9 and then have lost their last 3.
• The Roosters winning 7 from their last 8 after 4 losses in a row.
• The Tigers and Eels have lost 8 from 10.
• The Broncos putting together two 5 game streaks to lead the competition.
• The Sea Eagles 5 game losing streak to have them at the other end of the table.

Usually there is something that creates the catalyst for a streak; self-belief, administration issues, injuries, strength of draw, or signings/backflips. A number of these events come from outside the playing group.

The Cowboys have their stars shining through, the Dragons have tightened their defence but their attack has been exposed, the Roosters have remembered their class, the Tigers and Eels have had off-field dramas, the Broncos have the favourable draw and the Sea Eagles have had a circus with their halves.

The Knights are an interesting case study. They have a classy backline, veteran forwards and some good youth coming through. The coach is one of their own and the club is again owned by the community which is bringing about stability off the field. It is baffling looking from the outside what has caused their woes.

Predictions

Last week I picked 5/8. Here are my picks for this week.

Panthers vs. Rabbitohs @ Pepper Stadium
The Panthers meet an Origin depleted team, but will have their hand full. Rabbitohs by 8

Dragons vs. Cowboys @ WIN Stadium
Both teams will be impacted, but the Cowboys will struggle again without Thurston. Dragons by 4

Sea Eagles vs. Sharks @ Brookvale Oval
The Sea Eagles need the win, but the Sharks are coming good. Sharks by 6

Tigers vs. Eels @ ANZ Stadium
The Tigers let the last one get away from them. Eels by 4

Byes: Broncos, Bulldogs, Knights, Raiders, Roosters, Storm, Titans, Warriors

Form Guide

The form guide is based on a predictive model that gives more weight to recent performances. There is no adjustment for personal bias, injury or their position on the table. Byes are given a 50% weighting.

1. Broncos (+1) : have won 7 from their last 8 matches
2. Roosters (+1) : have won 6 from 7 around the bye
3. Cowboys (-2) : lost without Thurston after their 11 game streak
4. Sharks (-) : have won their last three with Barba providing a spark from the bench
5. Bulldogs (-) : have won 4 from their last 5
6. Rabbitohs (-) : quietly building up their form
7. Warriors (+5) : have started to reap some wins over the Origin period
8. Eels (-) : a win over the Dragons to wash way their last month of turmoil
9. Panthers (-1) : under manned but able to top the Tigers
10. Titans (-4) : couldn't get over the top of the in form Roosters
11. Dragons (-4) : that popping sound was the bursting of their bubble
12. Sea Eagles (+5) : another loss but just 3 wins out of the top 8
13. Storm (-1) : four losses out of the last five outings
14. Raiders (-1) : five losses in their last six games
15. Tigers (-1) : could not win at their spiritual home with a near full strength team
16. Knights (-) : have lost 10 from their last 11 matches with little hope on the horizon

Composite Team

Last week's composite team was made up of players with over 300 games. Can you work out the theme for the team below?

1. Michael Maguire
2. Chris Anderson
3. Andrew Farrar
4. Ivan Cleary
5. Wayne Bennett
6. Michael Hagan
7. Ricky Stuart
8. Trent Robinson
9. John Lang
10. Tim Sheens
11. Craig Bellamy
12. Steve Folkes
13. Des Hasler
14. Geoff Toovey
15. Graham Murray
16. Brian Smith
17. David Waite

This team has lots of football IQ but is not star studded. Predicted placing in 2015 table: 15th

Flash Back

This week's Flash Back was a try scoring back rower. Hugh McGahan played in the Auckland Rugby League competition under Graham Lowe before moving to Eastern Suburbs in 1985.

McGahan made his New Zealand debut in 1982 against Australia and rose to prominence with his next two matches against PNG. He scored two tries in the 1982 match and then followed it up with a six try performance the next year. In 1984 he played in three tests against Great Britain, winning all by comfortable margins.

1985 was a busy international schedule with 8 tests, including a World Cup, against Australia, Great Britain and France. They won four and drew one. The next year included another 5 tests, including a shock loss to PNG.

McGahan's first two seasons in Australia were in an average Roosters team; losing more games than they won. However, in 1987 as captain he was named the Dally M backrower of the year. After winning the mid-year test against Australia, he led the Roosters to the Preliminary Final against Canberra, going down 24-32, after having won their previous encounter in the Semi Final. In the semi he scored two tries including a flying performance (see the video).

In 1988 McGahan won the Golden Boot Award along with Peter Sterling. Unfortunately he only managed 5 games for the Roosters that season. He was back in 1989 with 5 tests and a full season with the Chooks. 1990 was another long season with 4 tests, taking his international career to 32 games and 16 tries. This included a field goal in his second last test win against Great Britain. His 16 tries made him the leading try scorer for New Zealand at the time of his retirement.

1991 was McGahan's last with the Roosters. He ended the season as captain-coach after the departure of Russell Fairfax. He ended up playing 117 matches with 20 tries. After his retirement he ascended to be a Director of East's leagues and football club.