The Prism - Round 1 2015

Hot topic
It is very difficult to reconcile between the respect that players want and some of their poor behaviour. On one hand they are the game; putting in many hours training, travelling and playing. They put their bodies on the line to give us great emotion when our teams win or lose. The players can do many things that we can only dream about.

However, they have a lot of spare time and all too often someone brings the game into disrepute. The usual comment is that it is a very small group that does so. However, this "small" group creates front page news all too regularly. As a squad, the players need to take shared responsibility as they do in the defence of their line.

The senior players need to behave like role models and keep the younger players in check. It is frustrating when you see a veteran implicated in bad behaviour. The excuse that players are not role models is a farce. The only reason they get paid big dollars is because the average punter looks up to them enough to part with their hard earned cash.

I have been hoping that a lesson will be learnt from past indiscretions, but it has been decades since I first wanted this. When will the on-field leaders take on a fuller responsibility to the game?

Performance of the Week
Leading into the first week of the season we can only comment on the off field performance of the NRL. It is hard to say that they have managed to get the excitement level to fever pitch. There was a huge opportunity to have positive momentum following the 9's, All Stars match and world club series.

However, the on field performances in the pre-season have well and truly been washed away by the sweeping under the carpet of the Souths indiscretions and the ongoing drugs allegations on the Gold Coast. It is hard to get the family vote when these issues are hanging around.

Equally distracting is the debacle of having stars being shopped around to other teams before the season commences. No other credible sport allows this to happen. There are trading windows and drafts to manage this elsewhere. There is not one employer in any industry that would allow someone to remain on payroll if they have signed a contract with a competitor a year from now. The Dragons imploded in 2011 when the coach and Clive Churchill medal winner pledged their allegiance to Newcastle. Their fans have been left bewildered ever since and this is reflected in attendances, player retention and falling profits.

Finally, at the grass roots level, the NRL has really blundered. They have done away with the annual general admission passes for juniors; opting instead for an on-line process to get a ticket to a single game per round. We have attended a number of games on the spare of the moment with the plastic cards safely in our wallets. This is no longer possible as you now need to register to get a ticket and then print it off (assuming you are at home when the urge comes). The only reason for this is to build a database of private information to be on-sold by the NRL. Let's see how this impact on walk up attendances this year.

Although the NRL has posted a strong profit, it must remain relevant to the grass roots and supporters if it is to grow. There is no future in empty stadiums bereft of disillusioned families.

Predictions
This week shapes as having a few great square ups and some points to prove. My tips are as follows:

Broncos vs. Rabbitohs @ Suncorp Stadium
The battle of the two super clubs to start the season will be a must watch. The Rabbitohs have great form and a fantastic roster, but you can't ignore the impact of the Master at home. Rabbitohs by 6

Eels vs. Sea Eagles @ Pirtek Stadium
Some square ups here. Hopefully the game has all the hallmarks of a beer commercial. Too many player and off-field distractions at Manly, but this is when they are at their best. Manly by 6

Knights vs. Warriors @ Hunter Stadium
Warriors are worriers when away from home. They need to win these sorts of games to be a force, but will again start slow. Knights by 4

Titans vs. Tigers @ Cbus Super Stadium
Titans will hear their footsteps echo at home if the crowds are fed up with their shenanigans. Will feel like an away game for both teams. Tigers by 8

Cowboys vs. Roosters @ 1300Smiles Stadium
This could be the game of the round. Two title heavyweights in a battle that will be close, until Thurston takes over. Cowboys by 4

Panthers vs. Bulldogs @ Pepper Stadium
Another big match up in the west. Who said that league was dead in the heartland? This will be a tough contest, but the Panthers will have a stirring win. Panthers by 2

Sharks vs. Raiders @ Remondis Stadium
The Raiders are still in transition and the Sharks will have too much emotion to be held out. It will be interesting to see if the new recruits can make an immediate impact? Sharks by 8

Dragons vs. Storm @ Jubilee Oval
These teams have a long history, but the Storm has had the better of it. The big three will teach the Dragons a lesson. Storm by 10

Form Guide
When I make my tips for the week, I am quite interested in how well teams are currently performing rather than where they are on the table. We can remember the end of the 2005 season when Newcastle was a feared opponent on the way to picking up the wooden spoon, or 2011 when the Dragons lost 11 of their last 14 matches even though they had a squad which was good enough to win the premiership the year before. Neither team could be picked week to week based on their ladder position.

I have built a statistical model for tracking current form which may give a pointer towards who will win the next match. This does not take into account the team's position on the table, injuries, rep duties or hoodoos which obviously have a major impact. Instead, it looks purely at the results of the most recent games which are given a higher weighting than the older ones.

This analysis will start this after round 3 when enough results become available. Let's see how well this model goes at predicting the results of the following week's games.

Composite Team
Every so often we will be posting a composite team based on a theme. Some will be obvious and others will take some thinking to work out the link. There may be some poetic licence required to fill a squad, but let's have some fun. Can you work out the link for the below squad? This is an easy one to start with.

1. Paul Hauff
2. Colin Best
3. Mark Gasnier
4. Jamal Idris
5. Edrick Lee
6. Feleti Mateo
7. Tony Williams
8. Dane Tilse
9. Mario Fenech
10. Matt Parsons
11. Norm Provan
12. Graeme Wynn
13. Trent Waterhouse

14. Sam Kasiano
15. Sam Burgess
16. SBW
17. Gavin Cooper

Some speed in the backline, big boppers in the pack and a strong bench. However, may struggle in the halves. Predicted placing in 2015 table: 11th

Flash Back

Have you ever had someone remind you about a player from the past that brings memories flooding back, or you are too young to know about the players that were the toast of the town. Here we look at the forgotten players that had an impact on the game.

This week we look back on a tough as nails lock or 5/8th who was undersized even when compared to other players in the 70's. Graeme O'Grady had a good step and was an effective kicker, but most of all he led from the front.

He started his career at Western Suburbs in 1974, becoming a regular first grader from 1976. He was the Amco Cup Player of the Series in 1977 when the Magpies defeated Easts in the final of the mid-week competition.

O'Grady and Tommy Raudonikis left the Magpies in 1980 to join Warren Ryan at the Newtown Jets as part of the Bluebags buying splurge. They went all the way to the 1981 grand final against Parramatta and led the match early in the second half. O'Grady scored a first half try. They eventually went down 20-11 to give the Eels their first ever premiership, prompting the great Jack Gibson to say "Ding, dong, the witch is dead". O'Grady was selected in the 1981 NSW team that year, but did not get any time on the field.

O'Grady re-joined former coach Roy Masters at St George in 1983 and made another grand final on 1985 against the Bulldogs. After the one point loss in the grand final, he retired from first grade rugby league.

O'Grady was named at 5/8th in the Western Suburbs team of the 1970's. He will always be remembered for punching well above his weight.

Until next week.